Gas, oil, heat pump or hybrid: which replacement fits?
Real fuel prices, real efficiency ratings and a ten-year calculator you can fill in with your own bills and quotes.
- Last checked: November 8, 2026
- Prices: DOER and EIA
Last checked November 8, 2026
At a glance
The short version. Natural gas is the cheapest of the four fuels per BTU, electricity the costliest, and a heat pump multiplies each kilowatt-hour into two or three times as much heat, so it lands close to gas and well under oil. Only the heat pump earns a Mass Save rebate. The calculator below runs the numbers on your own bills.
The four paths
| Path | What changes | Mass Save rebate |
|---|---|---|
| Same fuel, new unitgas, oil or propane | Lowest disruption. Same venting, same fuel supply, same tank or gas line. | None, except for income-eligible households (details). |
| Whole-home heat pump | Heat pump heats and cools. The boiler or furnace is retired. Often needs panel capacity. | $2,650 per ton, up to $8,500 in 2026. $2,350 per ton, up to $7,500 from Jan 1, 2027. |
| Hybrid (partial-home)heat pump plus your boiler or furnace | Heat pump does most of the work. The old system stays for the coldest days or for zones the heat pump does not reach. | $1,125 per ton, up to $8,500 in 2026. $1,000 per ton, up to $7,500 from Jan 1, 2027. |
| Electric resistancebaseboard, electric furnace | Shown for comparison. It is the most expensive way to heat on today's prices. | Not a rebate path. Replacing it with a heat pump is. |
Sources: Mass Save, Boilers & Furnaces and Mass Save, Air Source Heat Pumps. Checked November 2026.
A decision flow in three questions
Start here if you have not picked a direction. Each box points to the guide that answers it.
Which path to price first
Three questions, in order.
What 100,000 BTU of heat costs, fuel by fuel
This is the fairest first comparison: how much it costs to put one therm (100,000 BTU) of heat into the house, after the equipment's efficiency. It uses the DOER and EIA prices above and the ENERGY STAR efficiency ratings. It leaves out the equipment price, which only your quotes can tell you.
Cost per 100,000 BTU of heat delivered
Lower is cheaper to run. Green is a heat pump, orange is the costliest group.
Ten years, per 100 therms of heat
Take any home and ask how many therms of heat it needs in a year. For every 100 therms (10 million BTU) a year, ten years at today's prices cost:
| System | Per year | Over 10 years |
|---|---|---|
| Heat pump, COP 3.0 | $298 | $2,978 |
| Heat pump, COP 2.9 | $313 | $3,127 |
| Gas furnace, 97% | $320 | $3,196 |
| Gas boiler, 90% | $344 | $3,444 |
| Heat pump, COP 2.0 | $447 | $4,467 |
| Propane boiler, 90% | $486 | $4,860 |
| Oil boiler, 87% | $512 | $5,121 |
| Electric resistance, 100% | $893 | $8,933 |
Our arithmetic on the published prices and ratings above, no price growth assumed. Multiply by your home's heat need: a house that needs 800 therms of heat a year costs eight times these figures. The calculator below does that for you.
Read this table with care. DOER warns that households should not assume that switching fuels will automatically lead to savings (DOER, household heating costs). A heat pump's real efficiency depends on the model, the size, the weather and how the house is built. The COP rows are the range the federal sources support, not a promise for your house.
Two things can improve a heat pump's numbers. Massachusetts now has a residential heat pump electric rate from all three major electric utilities (DOER), and Mass Save says eligible customers may qualify for a seasonal heat pump rate with lower electric rates from November through April. Ask your utility whether you qualify.
Ten-year cost calculator
What will ten years of heat cost?
Your fuel use sets how much heat the house needs. The calculator prices that heat on each path. No Aurion prices are used: the equipment cost is whatever your quotes say.
Prices read November 6, 2026: oil and propane from the DOER weekly survey of November 2, 2026, gas and electricity from EIA's August 2026 Massachusetts figures. Efficiencies from ENERGY STAR and DOE. An estimate for comparing options, not a quote. Your real bill depends on your rate plan, the weather and the house.
Furnace and boiler efficiency: the legal minimum against the best rated
| Equipment | Federal minimum AFUE | ENERGY STAR AFUE |
|---|---|---|
| Gas furnace | 80% today. 95% for units made on or after December 18, 2028. | 97% (northern U.S., includes Massachusetts) |
| Oil furnace | 83% | 87% |
| Gas hot-water boiler | 84% (made since January 15, 2021) | 90% |
| Oil hot-water boiler | 86% (made since January 15, 2021) | 87% |
Sources: 10 CFR 430.32 (read November 6, 2026); ENERGY STAR furnace criteria; ENERGY STAR boilers; the 2028 gas furnace rule is also announced by DOE. A fuel bill drops with a higher AFUE. Replacing an 80% unit with a 97% one moves 17 more cents of each fuel dollar into heat.
Pros and cons, plainly
A heat pump (whole-home or hybrid)
- Mass Save rebate: $2,650 per ton in 2026, $2,350 from January 1, 2027
- Heats and cools with one system
- Mass Save HEAT Loan can finance it at 0%
- Cuts oil and propane use; DOER says heat pumps heat at much lower cost than electric resistance, oil or propane
Things to check first
- Electrical panel capacity
- Heating-load calculation and size
- Electric use will rise, per Mass Save
- The rebate needs a contractor in the Mass Save Heat Pump Installer Network
A new gas, oil or propane unit
- Lowest disruption, same fuel supply
- Gas is the cheapest fuel to burn in the table above
- Higher AFUE cuts the fuel bill
What it costs you
- No Mass Save rebate or financing, except income-eligible
- Oil and propane prices swing; oil was $6.17 a gallon in the November 2, 2026 DOER survey, against $3.63 a year earlier
- Gas furnace minimum rises to 95% in 2028 production
Dates that change the math
A 2026 whole-home heat pump rebate needs the install finished by December 31, 2026. From January 1, 2027 the rate falls from $2,650 to $2,350 per ton and the cap from $8,500 to $7,500. Mass Save's published example: a $22,000 whole-home install, $8,500 rebate, $13,500 net. See the December 31 deadline guide, the rebate calculator and rebates and financing for heating replacement.
Where Aurion takes the project
Aurion takes the project from first photos to finished job: the written quote, the heat pump or like-for-like replacement, the permits and the rebate paperwork. Licensed Massachusetts technicians do the licensed work. Send a photo of the old unit and one of the panel and we price the options side by side. Pages that go deeper: gas furnace to heat pump, oil to heat pump and heat pump or new oil boiler.
Common questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than an oil boiler in Massachusetts?
On the November 2, 2026 DOER price of $6.17 per gallon and EIA's August 2026 electricity price of 30.48 cents per kWh, yes. Delivering 100,000 BTU of heat costs about $5.12 with a new 87% oil boiler. A heat pump costs about $4.47 at a seasonal COP of 2.0 and $2.98 at 3.0. Oil prices move week to week, so check the live DOER number.
Is natural gas cheaper than a heat pump?
It can be. Using EIA's August 2026 Massachusetts residential price of $32.10 per thousand cubic feet, about $3.10 per therm, a 97% gas furnace delivers 100,000 BTU for about $3.20. That is close to a heat pump at COP 2.9 to 3.0 and below one at COP 2.0. August is a summer month, so type your own winter gas price into the calculator.
What is a hybrid heating system?
A heat pump handles most of the heating and a boiler or furnace stays for the coldest days. Mass Save calls this a partial-home heat pump. It pays a smaller rebate than a whole-home system, and when the existing system stays in a zone Mass Save requires a qualified integrated control.
Does Mass Save pay for a new gas or oil furnace or boiler?
No, except for income-eligible households. Mass Save says rebates, incentives and financing for equipment powered by natural gas, oil and propane are no longer available, and the only exception is for income-eligible households.
What does AFUE mean?
Annual fuel utilization efficiency: the percentage of the heat in the incoming fuel that becomes space heat instead of being lost. An 87% AFUE oil boiler turns 87 cents of every fuel dollar into heat for the house.
Can I keep my oil or gas system and add a heat pump?
Yes. That is a partial-home project. Mass Save pays $1,125 per ton up to $8,500 for 2026 installs and $1,000 per ton up to $7,500 for installs on or after January 1, 2027.
Will a heat pump work in a Massachusetts winter?
Mass Save requires ENERGY STAR Cold Climate equipment, and ENERGY STAR says certification requires third-party verified performance for low temperatures, testing air-source heat pumps down to 5 degrees Fahrenheit. The right size and a proper heating-load calculation matter. See the sizing guide.
How do I compare quotes for different fuels?
Ask every contractor for the same scope in writing: equipment model and efficiency, removal of the old unit, venting, permits, electrical work and the rebate paperwork. Then enter each total in the calculator above to see ten-year cost.
Questions? Call (781) 210-8400 or send two photos and your town.
Old boiler or furnace?
Send a photo of it and one of your panel, with your town. We look at them and get back to you with a price.
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